Thursday, November 1, 2007

Foreign Physicians and Health Care Costs

JAMA's article on foreign doctors harbors a naive central assumption; that bringing more doctors into the US will reduce the average physician salary. But Maggie Mahar weighs in and it may not be so.

Has everyone forgotten that competition between physicians tends to raise total costs rather than bring a healthy competition-induced drop in prices? Nobody really understands this counter-intuitive observation, but where physicians concentrate, more health care is delivered. It was one of the challenges of the Dartmouth Atlas to demonstrate there was real variability in the frequency of certain procedures, given the variations in the concentration of the specialists doing those procedures. More diagnostics lead to more opportunities for intervention. In the presence of salary pressures, physicians come up creative ways of maintaining a competitive lifestyle including the overuse of technology well within the gray range of the 'medically necessary'.

Oberlander's NEJM editorial is careful to only refer to managed competition; that is competition between insurance companies. But the brilliant management guru Michael Porter has taken on health care and refers to competition between providers and physicians. My instinct tells me it is of limited usefulness, that is only between large consolidated group of physicians or hospitals. In the more fragmented environment of small practices that still characterizes a significant proportion of health care, it is unlikely that competition would reduce physician salaries, and so have a limited impact on some prices for health care.

The use of the word 'provider' has confused the issue, as does the question of physician income versus health care prices. Competition may work for hospitals and large practices, but not with physicians. My world is primary care and incomes are below the range at which there can be a robust and significant growth in supply. Foreign doctors are not always so happy to stay in primary care. In many instances, foreign-educated doctors may be more specialty-driven, more entrepreneurial and less community-driven than native-born physicians.

With all due respect to Maggie Mahar, the doctors who are committed to their communities are less likely to leave their countries in the first place. Although recruitment of foreign doctors ignores international resource needs and risks a brain drain from countries that can least sustain it, the emigration of physicians will not necessarily improve the situation here. One of many reasons to leave is the pursuit of higher incomes, richer lifestyles and better opportunities.

At least in primary care, incomes are inappropriately low, given expectations for performance. I doubt the local plumber is going to be immediately available to dispense advice 24/7/365 for twice what the average internist makes today.

Competition makes absolutely no sense when prices are high partly due to a supply shortage. Bringing more doctors into the market, although a welcome notion, does not address the fundamental perverse failures of the US health care market. Nor will it reduce physician incomes! Nor will it reduce the nation's health care bill!

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

"Has everyone forgotten that competition between physicians tends to raise total costs rather than bring a healthy competition-induced drop in prices?"

Is that true? I'm sort of new to this, could you post a reference?

Thanks,
Tom

Zagreus Ammon said...

I knew as I was writing it, that it should be referenced or at least raise questions. So I appreciate that you picked up on the fact that it is a statement that truly demands investigation. At least someone is really reading...

There is some literature on how physicians are able to generate their own demand for health services. I am including one of the earliest references to that effect. I hope you have full text access because copyright restrictions make it hard to share anything but the reference and the abstract.

It is appropriate to note the considerable dissent in the literature; or rather articles that seem to ignore a) the observation that physicians can generate their own demand and b) the perception or reality of a shortage. These observations suggest that establishing market-based competition between physicians, rather than health plans or large groups (i.e. hospitals) could be less successful than advertised.


A Theory of Physician Behavior with Supplier-Induced Demand
Richard K. Anderson, Donald House, Michael B. Ormiston
Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 48, No. 1 (Jul., 1981), pp. 124-133



Also a more recent reference from a single-payer system:

Physician supply, supplier-induced demand and competition: empirical evidence from a single-payer system
Sudha Xirasagar, Herng-Ching Lin
The International Journal of health Planning and Management 21(2): 117-131

Anonymous said...

The posted reference is 26 years old.

Zagreus Ammon said...

So is the idea that physicians generate demand.

Nietzsche's "Will to Power" is over 100 years old. Ayn Rand's "Atlas Shrugged" is over 50 years old.

Age does not make Nietzche more right or Rand more wrong.

Cushing worked in the 17th century, Hippocrates described the valves of the heart nearly 2500 years ago.

Please forgive my early morning peakedness, but what's your critique of these papers or the idea that physicians create their own demand? Perhaps you are suggesting that physicians do not behave today the way they did 20 years ago. I suppose we could look into it.

maggiemahar said...

Zagreus Ammon is right.

We have known for a very long time that, in health care, supply drives demand: "Build the beds and they will come."

And this has been verified in recent years. See www.dartmoutalas.org.

Earlier this year, I wrote about this research, with up-to-date numbers,here:http://dartmed.dartmouth.edu/spring07/.

And thank you, Zagreus ammon, for noticing what I have written and responding to it.

Maggie Mahr
(www.healthbeatblog.org)

Zagreus Ammon said...

Thanks for the references Maggie. Unfortunately I have a problem with typos on my blog because I type too fast, and I suspect something like that happened:

http://www.dartmouthatlas.org/

I haven't mastered html tags in blogger, the entire address for the article is:
http://dartmed.dartmouth.edu/spring07/html/atlas.php